Abstract: We investigate how the import of automation impacts upgrading within firm production networks. We use comprehensive data on product mix, foreign trade, balance sheets, employment, and firm-to-firm transactions for Turkish manufacturing firms from 2009 to 2020.
By employing Propensity Score Matching (PSM) alongside event study analyses and an instrumental variable (IV) approach, our research provides robust evidence that firms importing automation enhance the quality and lower quality-adjusted prices of their products. Importantly, the benefits of automation extend downstream throughout the supply chain to firms sourcing inputs from suppliers that
have adopted automation. No significant effects propagate, instead, to upstream firms supplying automation adopters.
Paper nr. 494
Title: DO RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY MEASURES REALLY AFFECT FARMERS' BEHAVIOUR AND PERFORMANCE? A SYNTHETIC DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCES ESTIMATION.
Abstract: This paper deals with the response of farmers to targeted policy measures. The research question consists of whether and to what extent this response, upon voluntary adoption and eventually driven by private motivations, also generates the outcome of societal interest. Challenges posed by these policies are multiple since they may admit a staggered adoption with often very few, at least initially, treated units. In order to deal with these challenges, the paper adopts a Synthetic Difference-in-
Differences approach. Within this causal inference logic, an appropriate theoretical framework is elaborated to model farmers? behavioural response to the policy distinguishing between the private and societal outcomes. This approach is applied to a balanced sample of Italian farms and to some selected measures of the second pillar of the EU Common Agricultural Policy over the period 2014-2022. Results point to the identification and estimation issues emerging when the entry into
the treatment is staggered and treated units are few and heterogeneous.
For some policy measures the estimated treatment effect is significant for the private outcome while it seems weaker and more volatile for the societal outcome.
Paper nr. 493
Title: EXPECTED FOREIGN MILITARY INTERVENTION AND DEMAND FOR STATE-BUILDING: EVIDENCE FROM MALI
Abstract: We study the informational effects of foreign military intervention on citizens' motivations to participate in state-building processes. We analyze the 2012 United Nations Security Council resolution that authorized intervention in Mali to reunify
the country and restore democracy during a profound institutional crisis. By exploiting the randomness of the foreign intervention announcement, relative to the timeline of the Afrobarometer interviews, we document that individuals interviewed the days after the announcement have a higher intrinsic motivation to comply with taxes, are less inclined to refuse to filing taxes, and are more reluctant to evade even if had chances, relative to individuals, interviewed immediately before, with the same characteristics, region, and ethnic group. We demonstrate that these effects are specific to regions characterized by low state capacity and limited ethnic diversity, as well as to individuals who perceive that their ethnic group has not been systematically discriminated against by the state. Consistently with our story, we document that motivations to comply only increase in respondents with access to the news at home (who own either a TV or a radio). Our results survive a wide range of falsification tests and indicate that foreign military interventions signal state-building, raising the expected benefits to participate.
Paper nr. 492
Title: LE IMPLICAZIONI ECONOMICHE DELLE PERDITE DELLE BANCHE CENTRALI
Abstract: Con il recente, rapido e inatteso ritorno dell'inflazione, in gran parte dei principali paesi, si ? assistito all?abbandono del quantitative easing (QE) e al passaggio ad una nuova fase restrittiva della politica monetaria manifestatosi con l?aumento dei tassi di interesse e lo smantellamento di parte dei titoli detenuti dalle banche centrali (quantitative tightening QT). Ne sono risultate perdite ingenti senza precedenti nei bilanci delle banche centrali. Questo paper offre una rassegna delle implicazioni economiche delle suddette perdite partendo da una discussione sulle diverse pratiche contabili e sulle diverse regole che determinano le rimesse delle banche centrali a favore dei tesori nazionali. L'analisi delle conseguenze delle perdite delle banche centrali viene poi proposta con riferimento ad un intero ciclo di QE e QT e si conclude fornendo una serie di raccomandazioni per arginare le perdite delle banche centrali nelle politiche monetarie non convenzionali.
Paper nr. 491
Title: IN THE WRONG PLACE AT THE WRONG TIME: THE IMPACT OF MASS SHOOTING EXPOSURE ON MENTAL HEALTH
Abstract: We study the effect of mass shooting exposure on individuals? mental health by using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our identification strategy relies on the quasirandomness of mass shootings in a staggered difference-in-differences design. We compare changes in mental health outcomes of individuals living in affected cities with changes of matched individuals living in non-proximal and not affected cities. We find that mass shootings have a substantial adverse impact on mental health, which persists for up to six years. This impact is not statistically significant for Black individuals, whereas it is
slightly more pronounced among women and older cohorts.
Paper nr. 490
Title: SUPERBONUS O SUPERMALUS? UN ADDENDUM PER UN BILANCIO DEI RECENTI INCENTIVI FISCALI IN MATERIA EDILIZIA
Abstract: Il lavoro integra ed aggiorna l?analisi condotta in un precedente contributo (Papi 2022) per offrire una sistematica e pi? recente valutazione di due importanti e recenti interventi della politica economica italiana (i cosiddetti ?bonus facciate? e ?superbonus 110 per cento?). Il bilancio finale conferma il giudizio di grande perplessit? sulle modalit? con le quali sono state disegnate e applicate le due misure. In particolare, il lavoro discute gli effetti macroeconomici mettendo in luce le conseguenze negative sui conti dello Stato e approfondendo i risultati in termini di efficienza energetica e di equit? sociale. Il lavoro si conclude discutendo alcuni suggerimenti correttivi per eventuali future misure incentivanti.
Abstract: High temperatures can have a negative effect on workplace safety for a variety of reasons.
Discomfort and reduced concentration caused by heat can lead to workers making mistakes and injuring themselves. Discomfort can also be an incentive for workers to report an injury that they would not have reported in the absence of heat. We investigate how temperature affects injuries of professional tennis players in outdoor singles matches. We find that for men injury rates increase with ambient temperatures. For women, there is no effect of high temperatures on injuries. Among male tennis players, there is some heterogeneity in the temperature effects, which seem to be influenced by incentives. Specifically, when a male player is losing at the beginning of a crucial (second) fourth set in
(best-of-three) best-of-five matches, the temperature effect is much larger than when he is winning. In best-of-five matches, which are more exhausting, this effect is age-dependent and stronger for older players.
Paper nr. 488
Title: TRADE EXPOSURE, IMMIGRANTS AND WORKPLACE INJURIES
Authors: Mattia Filomena, Alessia Lo Turco, Matteo Picchio
Abstract: We study the effects of globalization on workplace accidents in the Italian manufacturing sector from 2008 to 2019. We focus on both the local intensity of import exposure to China and the share of foreign-born residents. To handle potential endogeneity concerns, we instrument the import exposure to China with that of other high-income countries and local immigration exposure with historical co-national local settlements. Our findings highlight a worsening of workplace safety following an increase in import competition, especially for male workers. An inspection of the channels suggests that the effect works
through an increasing workload.
Paper nr. 487
Title: CONSTANT, DECREASING, OR INCREASING? A NOTE ON THE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HISTORY
Abstract: There is substantial disagreement regarding the rate of economic growth, particularly concerning economists'
perspectives on the rate of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Some envision theoretical mechanisms implying
constant growth, others have recently suggested a potential secular slowdown in TFP growth, while still others
foresee an acceleration of economic growth in the near future, driven by the diffusion of new technologies
(Artificial Intelligence). Understanding the direction and speed of progress is critically important for planning
our future. A part of the research gap is due to the limited temporal coverage of available data sources.
In this article, I attempt to bridge this gap by using an alternative (and unconventional) dataset.
The analysis is technically straightforward, based on a simple approach that considers learning mechanisms.
Although also the dataset used here has its limitations, it allows for an empirical analysis spanning many centuries,
if not millennia. The results, thus derived from a historical approach, are very clear and hold significant
implications for the future. The key message is that we should expect a progressive slowdown in the rate of
scientific progress, although substantial progress will continue for the next few centuries.
Paper nr. 486
Title: FACTORS ENHANCING AI ADOPTION BY FIRMS. EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE
Authors: Alessia Lo Turco, Alessandro Sterlacchini
Abstract: In this paper we consider firms involved in two waves (2019 and 2021) of the French ICT survey to distinguish between early and late adopters of AI technologies and to highlight some relevant antecedents that facilitated the former to keep and the latter to start adopting them. The implementation of data security systems, the training and recruitment of employees for ICT, and the use of websites and social media for collecting information on customers, increase the probability of keeping and starting the AI adoption. We also show that the impact of these factors differs according to the business function AI technologies are used for. They appear to be more relevant for the administration and marketing functions. Furthermore, the usage of AI for marketing is also fostered by the antecedent use of e-commerce and CRM applications. These findings support the hypothesis that the AI adoption by firms is shaped by a hierarchical trajectory, from less to more complex and demanding technologies in terms of complementary investments in ICT and skills.
