Abstract: There is substantial disagreement regarding the rate of economic growth, particularly concerning economists'
perspectives on the rate of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Some envision theoretical mechanisms implying
constant growth, others have recently suggested a potential secular slowdown in TFP growth, while still others
foresee an acceleration of economic growth in the near future, driven by the diffusion of new technologies
(Artificial Intelligence). Understanding the direction and speed of progress is critically important for planning
our future. A part of the research gap is due to the limited temporal coverage of available data sources.
In this article, I attempt to bridge this gap by using an alternative (and unconventional) dataset.
The analysis is technically straightforward, based on a simple approach that considers learning mechanisms.
Although also the dataset used here has its limitations, it allows for an empirical analysis spanning many centuries,
if not millennia. The results, thus derived from a historical approach, are very clear and hold significant
implications for the future. The key message is that we should expect a progressive slowdown in the rate of
scientific progress, although substantial progress will continue for the next few centuries.
Paper nr. 486
Title: FACTORS ENHANCING AI ADOPTION BY FIRMS. EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE
Authors: Alessia Lo Turco, Alessandro Sterlacchini
Abstract: In this paper we consider firms involved in two waves (2019 and 2021) of the French ICT survey to distinguish between early and late adopters of AI technologies and to highlight some relevant antecedents that facilitated the former to keep and the latter to start adopting them. The implementation of data security systems, the training and recruitment of employees for ICT, and the use of websites and social media for collecting information on customers, increase the probability of keeping and starting the AI adoption. We also show that the impact of these factors differs according to the business function AI technologies are used for. They appear to be more relevant for the administration and marketing functions. Furthermore, the usage of AI for marketing is also fostered by the antecedent use of e-commerce and CRM applications. These findings support the hypothesis that the AI adoption by firms is shaped by a hierarchical trajectory, from less to more complex and demanding technologies in terms of complementary investments in ICT and skills.
Paper nr. 485
Title: HEALTHCARE EFFICIENCY AND ELDERLY MORTALITY IN ITALY
Abstract: The aim of this study is to assess the impact of healthcare efficiency on the mortality rate of elderly people aged 65 and 75 years old and over. To do this, we estimate a dynamic panel data model using the system generalised method of moments (SYS-GMM) on 106 Italian provinces over the period 2012-2019. To measure the efficiency index in the health sector, we apply the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. We also calculate the index via a bootstrap DEA method for robustness checks.
Our results show that, on average, a 10% increase in healthcare efficiency at the Italian provincial level reduces the mortality rate of older adults by approximately 2% to 3%.
Improving healthcare efficiency is crucial in enhancing the health services for the elderly and reduce mortality for this age group. Our findings could be helpful to policymakers in adopting measures that aim to increase healthcare efficiency, taking into account the specific needs of an aging population.
Paper nr. 484
Title: THE IMPACT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON PERFORMANCE IN WORK-RELATED ACTIVITIES
Abstract: High temperatures can have a negative effect on work-related activities because workers may experience difficulties concentrating or have to reduce effort in order to cope with heat. We investigate how temperature affects performance of professional tennis players in outdoor singles matches in big tournaments. We find that performance significantly decreases with ambient temperature. This result is robust to including wind speed and air pollution in the analysis. There are no differences between men and women. However, there is some heterogeneity in the magnitude of the temperature effect in other dimensions.
In particular, we find that the temperature effect is smaller when there is more at stake. Our findings also suggest that the negative temperature effect is smaller if the heat lasts, i.e. there is some adaptation to high temperatures.
Paper nr. 483
Title: IDIOSYNCRATIC AND SYSTEMATIC SPILLOVERS THROUGH THE RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between fossil fuels energy prices and renewable energy ETFs through a two-step approach: cointegration analysis and volatility spillover examination at both aggregate and frequency levels. Using daily closing prices from May 5, 2014, to October 31, 2023, we find evidence of cointegration among prices and a substitutedness (complementarity) relationship between fossil fuels and eolic (solar) energy. Exploring the system's common trend and correction mechanism underscores the influential role of growing Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) sentiment in the market. External events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid-19 pandemic, have discernible impacts on financial prices. The study provides valuable implications for investors and hedgers, offering guidance for portfolio optimization and emphasizing the consideration of sustainable financial products.
Paper nr. 482
Title: YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE: UNEMPLOYMENT, SOCIAL NETWORKS AND LEISURE ACTIVITIES
Abstract: We analyse how unemployment affects individuals' social networks, leisure activities, and the related satisfaction measures. Using the LISS panel, a representative longitudinal survey of the Dutch population, we estimate the effects by inverse propensity score weighting in a difference-in-differences design in order to deal with unobserved heterogeneity and unbalanced covariate distribution between treated and control units potentially associated with the dynamics of the outcome variables. We find that, after job loss, individuals increase their network size by strengthening their closest contacts within the family, spending more time with neighbors, and making more use of social media. Although
they devote their extra leisure time mostly to private activities, our results do not support the hypothesis of social exclusion following unemployment.
Paper nr. 481
Title: SAME OLD SONG: ON THE MACROECONOMIC AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF LEAVING A LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT
Authors: Alberto Botta, Eugenio Caverzasi, Alberto Russo
Abstract: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and distributional implications of central banks' decisions to raise interest rates after a prolonged period at near the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB). The main goal of our study is to assess the interaction between monetary policy, inequality, and financial fragility, in a financialized economic system. Financialization
is here portrayed as the presence in the economy of complex financial products, i.e., asset-backed securities, produced via the securitization of banks' loans. We do so in the context of a hybrid Agent-Based Model (ABM). We first compare the prevailing macroeconomic and nancial features of a low interest rate environment (LIRE) with respect to a "Great Moderation"(GM)-like setting. As expected, we show that LIRE tends to stimulate faster growth and higher employment, and to reduce income and wealth inequality, as well as (poor) households' indebtedness. Consistent with existing
empirical literature, this comes at the cost of higher inflation and some signs of financial system's fragility, i.e., lower banks' profitability and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), and higher "search for risk" given by credit extension to poorer households. We then show that increases in the central bank's policy rate, as motivated by the central bank's willingness
to reduce inflation, effectively curb price dynamics and accomplish with central bank's inflation targeting mandate. Higher interest rates also improve commercial banks' CAR and profitability. However, they also cause a pronounced increase in non-performing loans (stronger than what possibly observed in a GM scenario) and some worrisome
macro-financial dynamics. In fact, higher interest rates give rise to higher households' and overall economy indebtedness as allowed by wealthier households' demand for highyield complex financial products and mounting securitization. We finally show how financialization structurally changes the functioning of the economy and the behavior of
central banks. Financialization actually contributes to create a (private sector) debt-led economy, which becomes structurally more resistant to central bank's attempts to control inflation. Central bank's reaction in terms of higher interest rates could likely come with perverse distributional consequences.
Paper nr. 480
Title: PERSISTENCE OF R&D INTENSITIES IN THE WORLD'S TOP INVESTORS IN R&D
Authors: Claudia Pigini, Alessandro Sterlacchini, Francesco Valentini
Abstract: There is extensive empirical evidence of a within-sector heterogeneity in terms of firms'
R&D intensity (share of expenditures on sales) which, moreover, does not converge to a
common level over time. Using a balanced panel of the world's top R&D investors, we
first investigate whether there is a different degree of time persistence along the R&D
intensity distribution. Secondly, we analyse whether the persistence in and the transition
to different levels are heterogeneous between four R&D-intensive sectors. As a general
result, we find that companies starting with low R&D intensities are more likely to move
towards the sector medium levels than those exerting a high innovative effort, which
persist in the right tail of the distribution. With the exception of the Pharmaceutical
sector, company size affects negatively (positively) the persistence and the entry rate
into the top (bottom) 20% of the R&D intensity distribution. Differences across sectors
emerge with respect to the impact of other company characteristics (profitability, capital
investment, and location)
Paper nr. 479
Title: PUBLIC HEALTH EFFICIENCY AND WELL-BEING IN ITALIAN PROVINCE
Abstract: Health is a fundamental human right, and good health is an essential component
of well-being; therefore, an ecient public health system is required to
achieve well-being in society. This paper analyses the relationship between
public health eciency and well-being considering a panel of 102 Italian
provinces from 2000 to 2016. The results show that public health eciency
enhances well-being in Italian provinces, especially in the North. The ndings
could help policymakers adopt measures to strengthen the public health
system, encourage private providers, and inspire countries worldwide.
Paper nr. 478
Title: INTERGENERATIONAL SCARS: THE IMPACT OF PARENTAL UNEMPLOYMENT ON INDIVIDUAL HEALTH LATER IN LIFE
Abstract: This paper studies whether individuals that experienced parental unemployment during
their childhood/early adolescence have poorer health once they reach the adulthood. We
used data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2002 until 2018. Our identification
strategy of the causal effect of parental unemployment relied on plant closures
as exogenous variation of the individual labor market condition. We combined matching
methods and parametric estimation to strengthen the causal interpretation of the estimates.
On the one hand, we found a nil effect for parental unemployment on mental health. On
the other hand, we detected a negative effect on physical health. The latter is stronger
if parental unemployment occurred in early periods of the childhood, and it is heterogeneous
across gender. The negative effect of parental unemployment on physical health
may be explained by a higher alcohol and tobacco consumption later in life.
